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Mortality in the age of Omicron

Mortality in the age of Omicron

In this Topix, we construct a model to predict mortality in New Zealand and compare this to the actual mortality experience over recent years.

Storm clouds gathering. ACC levies set to increase.

Storm clouds gathering. ACC levies set to increase.

This Topix looks at the proposed changes to levy rates for the three levied ACC accounts. There are small increases proposed for the Earners’ and Motor accounts and a reduction for the Work account. However, not all is what it seems…

Change to the EQC cap.

Change to the EQC cap.

Change to the EQC cap. What does it mean for insurance prices?   In this article we have a look at the change to the EQC cap and what it might do to insurance prices. We look at differences between regions and by sum insured, to see who are likely to be the winners and losers from this change.

MJW KiwiSaver Market Review

MJW KiwiSaver Market Review

An in-depth review into the KiwiSaver market covering assets, membership, fees and competitiveness.

Market volatility in 2020

Market volatility in 2020

This article analyses market volatility in 2020 and how decisions to reposition an investment portfolio might have played out.

Investment Outlook

Investment Outlook

With interest rates at record lows, this article looks at how our outlook for returns has changed and what it may mean for investors.

New Zealand 2020 mortality

New Zealand 2020 mortality

COVID-19 and the related lockdowns have put a huge strain financially and mentally on many. However, flying under the radar is a little-acknowledged fact: fewer New Zealanders are dying.

Covid-19: Excess deaths

Covid-19: Excess deaths

With the Office of National Statistics releasing mortality data for England and Wales, we’ve done a quick analysis on how Covid-19 deaths fit into the broader picture, and what this looks like in terms of deaths additional to what one might have otherwise expected. Last updated: 22 April 2020

ACC Partnership Programme & WSMP

ACC Partnership Programme & WSMP

ACC has / is removing the Workplace Safety Management Practices discount.  What does this mean for the relative merits of joining the Accredited Employer Programme (AEP)?

An actuarial approach to modelling vehicle injuries and fatalities

An actuarial approach to modelling vehicle injuries and fatalities

This work was presented at the NZ Society of Actuaries 2018 conference.

Mutuality and Solidarity – is it possible to solve the crisis in private health insurance in New Zealand?

Mutuality and Solidarity – is it possible to solve the crisis in private health insurance in New Zealand?

This paper was presented at the NZ Society of Actuaries 2016 conference.

Asset allocation – does tactical positioning work?

Asset allocation – does tactical positioning work?

This is an area of frequent debate and we thought it useful to analyse how KiwiSaver funds have fared.

IFRS17: Key Issues for Health Insurers

IFRS17:  Key Issues for Health Insurers

IFRS17 (the new accounting standard for insurance contracts) was released in May 2017.   This newsletter looks at three key issues for health insurers, namely: Deferred acquisition costs Onerous contracts Contract boundary

IFRS17 Key Issues for General Insurers

IFRS17 Key Issues for General Insurers

IFRS17 (the new accounting standard for insurance contracts) has been released. This newsletter looks at three key issues for general insurers. Namely: Multi year policies Onerous contracts Risk margins

Active share – are you getting enough bang for your buck?

Active share – are you getting enough bang for your buck?

A discussion on active share – an alternative tool that can be used to consider active investment managers’ risk-taking and the implications for this in the New Zealand market.

IPSA Review – Issues Paper

IPSA Review – Issues Paper

This newsletter looks at the issues paper recently released by the Reserve Bank in regard to their review of the Insurance (Prudential Supervision) Act 2010. We discuss the key issues for non-life insurers, perhaps the most important of which is maintaining a level playing field between New Zealand and foreign insurers.

Distribution methods for charitable trusts

Distribution methods for charitable trusts

In this paper, we examine different distribution mechanisms in use around New Zealand by community trusts, iwi, and other similar organisations. We analyse how three simple distribution rules would fare following a large negative investment shock. The results show that there are clear differences and that the choice of distribution method has significant implications for intergenerational equity.

Insurance industry financial statements and TOWER analysis

Insurance industry financial statements and TOWER analysis

MJW has compiled a library of all the financial statements for every insurer licensed to operate in New Zealand as discussed in the attached newsletter. We’ve also done an analysis of TOWER’s accounts given the recent purchase offer by Fairfax.

The end for bonds?

The end for bonds?

Investors need to carefully consider the amount of duration in their portfolios.

Driverless cars and insurance telematics

Driverless cars and insurance telematics

Disruptive technologies threaten to shake up the insurance industry, and some commentators would have you believe that these are just around the corner. This article looks at some of the factors that need to be present for such technologies to succeed and considers the implications for New Zealand insurers.

ACC consultation levy rates for 2017-19

ACC consultation levy rates for 2017-19

In this Topix we outline the consultation rates proposed by ACC, the funding position of each ACC Account, costs for Accredited Employers and an assessment of the AEP for smaller employers.

IFRS16 and Insurer Solvency

New accounting standard may cause you solvency problems.

Repayment Waivers

Commerce Commission takes action over unreasonable fees by lenders.

RMS model release 2016

Risk Management Solutions has finally release their updated New Zealand Earthquake HD model.   The new model has serious implications for New Zealand insurers.

Financial Advisers Review – Options Paper

In this newsletter, we provide information on the MJW submission to MBIE.  It principally covers the main topics in the MJW Report published in November 2015.

ACC Accredited Employer Programme

The Residual Claims Levy (RCL) ceases with effect from 1 April 2016 and the impact is to transform the financial attraction of the Accredited Employers Programme (AEP). This newsletter focuses on illustrating the financial options for employers. Now is the time for all large and medium sized employers to compare their ACC options for the 2017 cover year.

Investment returns over last 20 years

In this newsletter, we look back over 20 years at the returns from each of the major asset classes.   We then look at 3 hypothetical diversified portfolios and compare/contrast the returns experienced by each.

Life Insurance – MJW Report

The report makes seven recommendations aimed at delivering real benefits to the average New Zealand consumer.

Setting a smarter solvency target

This article explores a smarter solvency target for New Zealand insurers.  

KiwiSaver & Concerns About a Market Correction

This article explores the effect of a hypothetical market correction on a typical KiwiSaver balance in the near future.

NZ Shares Capacity Analysis

This article looks at capacity limits in the New Zealand sharemarket.

Bank KiwiSaver Article

This newsletter looks at the progress of the different banks as they pursue increasing their share of the NZ KiwiSaver market place.

ACC residual claims levy

This newsletter highlights the need for legislative action to cease collection of the Residual Claims Levy. Currently the accredited employers are being hit hard and are ending up subsidising standard employers. All of this is acting as a disincentive to employers at a time when further incentives to improve health and safety in the NZ workplace are needed.

Insurance Regulation – December 2014 Update

The Reserve Bank issued a number of updates to their regulation of the insurance sector in December 2014.   In the attached MJW Topix we look at some of the changes and how they will affect insurers.

Global Equities and Commodities – Towers Watson Research Article

This article on global equities and commodities is taken from a recent publication by our global colleagues at Towers Watson.

Six trends that shaped markets in 2014

While most of the current commentary on markets is looking forward to 2015, this article looks back at the key trends in 2014 and is entitled “Six trends that shaped markets in 2014”.   A recap on how we have got to where we are is seen as valuable

Superannuation Schemes and FMC Act Newsletter

Come December 2016, corporate super schemes need to comply fully with the Financial Markets Conduct Act requirements. Before embarking on any changes, schemes need to fully review all their options.   The newsletter addresses these options.

Towers Watson global economic outlook

This article gives Towers Watson’s most recent global economic outlook.   In summary, their view is that global growth is expected to be modest  but acceptable over the next 3-5 years, although divergent across countries.   Risks are believed to be skewed to the downside over the medium to long term.

Update on Global Bonds and Global Equities

Medium term views on global government bonds and global equities from our colleagues at Towers Watson.

Investment Article September 2014

An article asking the question of what the right level of hedging is for global shares in a diversified portfolio.   The question arises from the recent significant fall in the value of the NZ dollar.

ACC Final 2015/16 rates

With an election this year, the ACC levy setting process has happened earlier than usual.   Last week, the minister announced the final rates for the 2015/16 year, and we have outlined these in the attached newsletter. Interestingly, the minister also indicated that a sufficient amount of residual levy has now been collected to cover the cost of pre-1999 injuries.   As a result, a review into the residual levy is expected in the future, which will be of interest to Accredited Employers.

May 2014 Newsletter – Telematics

In this newsletter, we look at a new product development in the New Zealand insurance market – a device designed to reward better drivers with better premiums.

Data Analytics – Retail Lending

Data analytics is all about using data to achieve your business goals.  This newsletter considers the retail lending sector and an example from the latest National census.

ACC Partnership Programme Options for 2014/15

This newsletter considers the impact of the reduction of the ACC standard levy on the Accredited Employers and the ACC Partnership Programme.

MJW Investment Article – December 2013

The Global Financial Crisis – 5 years on. A look back at the events surrounding the GFC and the lessons investors need to remember.

ACC – Finalised 2014/15 Levy Rates

We summarise the final levy rates as agreed by Government for the 2014/15 year.   Full details on the rates are included in our September 2013 newsletter.

September 2013 – ACC – 2014/15 Levy Rates

We outline the consultation rates proposed by ACC, the funding position of each ACC Account, costs for Accredited Employers and an assessment of the ACCPP for smaller employers.

ACC Partnership Programme – Valuation of Liabilities

How well are the results from the actuarial valuation understood by employers, and how useful are the results to the employer in managing their health and safety risk? In this publication we explore this issue, plus the idea that some smaller employers could reasonably the ACCPP option.

March 2013 Newsletter – The Winner’s Curse

In this newsletter we look at the phenomenon of the winner’s curse and what it might mean for your business.

January 2013 MJW Investment Newsletter

In this newsletter we look at how markets have performed over the last 20 years and what this has meant for 3 portfolios with different risk profiles.

December 2012 – Workers Compensation self-insurance in Australia

The newsletter covers the recent Australian self-insurers conference in November 2012 and looks at some of the issues faced by the Australian schemes that may be relevant to New Zealand.  

December 2012 – ACC – 2013/14 Levy Rates

For the 2013/14 year the Government decided to hold levy rates for the Work and Earners’ accounts at previous year’s levels despite ACC’s board recommending reductions of 13% and 12% respectively.

Election 2014 Data Insights

To celebrate the launch of our data analytics practice we have put together some quick statistics on the election results.   Whilst the overall results are well known and publicised, some interesting observations arise when combined with last year’s census data.

Proposed ACC Levy Rates for 2013/14

Proposed ACC levy rates for the 2013/14 year will see reductions for both the Work and Earners Accounts.   The average Motor Account rate remains unchanged.

October 2011 Investment Newsletter

While the last 15 years have been a tough time for investors in share markets it has been a boom time for holders of bonds.   But given the current uncertainty in the markets, where do we go from here?   What do charitable trusts do to meet their distribution expectations?   The answers are not obvious but a review of the recent past is often a useful starting point.

ACC – 2012/13 Levy Rates

The finalised ACC levy rates as agreed by Government in October 2011.

ACC Stocktake Group Report

Our review of the government’s response to the ACC Stocktake Group Report. Click here for the newsletter and here for the appendices.

ACC – 2011/12 Levy Rates, Experience Rating & Stocktake

The finalised ACC levy rates as agreed by Government in December 2010.

Proposed ACC Levy rates for 2011/12

Overall we are seeing better financial results from ACC, and there is good news on the residual claims levy for Accredited Employers.

ACC Experience Rating proposals

Our assessment is that the proposals look well designed and workable. The Accredited Employers will want to assess the costs before confirming they will renew their membership of the ACCPP for the 2011/12 year.

Budget May 2010

Impact of the 2010 Budget on superannuation schemes.

ACC – 2010/11 Levy Rates

The finalised ACC levy rates as agreed by Government in December 2009.

ACC – Partnership Programme

Mark Weaver wrote the paper for the Australian Actuaries conference on accident compensation schemes. The paper provides a comprehensive review of the ACC Partnership Programme.

ACC – Levies for 2010/11

The standard levy for the Work Account is up 57% and the Residual Claims Account up 27%. However with the planned change in the funding date for the pre 1999 claims from 2014 to 2019 the Residual Claims Account levy will decrease by 50% which is good news for the ACCPP employers.

Insurance – Proposed Regulatory Regime

In this newsletter we discuss insurance regulation in New Zealand.

ACC Self Insurance Options

The ACC self insurance option offers larger employers the opportunity to benefit directly from their investment in good health and safety practices.

Impact of the rising NZ dollar

Here we discuss the impact of the rising NZ dollar and in particular the implications for hedging strategies.

ACC – Levies for 2009/10

The Government has expressed serious concerns in the run up to announcing the ACC rates for 2009/10 and it is reasonable to expect we will see major initiatives around ACC in 2009.

Changes to KiwiSaver Scheme

Employers will need to review whether changes are required to the level of their contribution and that of their employees to KiwiSaver given the changes to the scheme from April 2009.

ACC – Proposed levies for 2009/10

While the Work Account and Residual Claims Account levies in total remain unchanged for 2009/10 our analysis shows that ACC has significant claim cost pressures which will need addressing if the levies for the Work, Earners and Motor Vehicle Accounts are not to increase substantially over the next few years.

KiwiSaver Investment Results – June 2008

Review of the investment results for a number of KiwiSaver providers.

KiwiSaver legislation passed

Our latest KiwiSaver newsletter considers both the impact of the compulsory contribution regime and reviews again all the main features and benefits of the scheme.

ACC Proposed 2008/09 Levy Rates

This newsletter is based on the Consultative Documents issued by ACC as part of its consultation process for the 2008/09 levy rates.

Final ACC 2008/09 Levy Rates

The average standard levy rate is down to 72 cents making it necessary for some accredited employers to review whether they should shift out of the FSCP and into the PDP option.

Privatisation of NZ Accident Insurance Workplace Cover

There is increasing interest in the possibility that a National Government will re privatise some of the ACC accounts. This paper looks at the experience in 1999/2000 when the Employer Account was privatised.

Pricing insurance risk

For the directors and senior management of an insurance operation, the greatest fears are having insufficient funds to pay claims and failing to earn an adequate return on capital.

Investments: Growth versus value funds

The article reviews growth v value global shares and concludes that a portfolio needs exposure to both investment styles

ACC in Australia: Current major issues in Australia

Interest in possible changes to the NZ ACC system is growing. Are there any lessons to be learned from the Australian systems?

Profit Commissions – One for You, Three for Me

For both the payer and the recipient, profit commission can be a double-edged sword.

ACC Rates for 2007/2008

Employers in the ACC Partnership Programme may wish to review and reassess the viability and benefits of the programme given the recommended rates for the 2007/08.  

KiwiSaver legislation passed

Comment on the legislation, with notes on the implications for existing schemes and for employers

Superannuation – Tax proposals and an update on KiwiSaver

The implications of the proposed changes to taxation of investment income, with further comment on possible KiwiSaver developments.

Review of the Stobo Report

The objective of the review was the minimisation of the extent to which the tax system distorts the way New Zealanders invest.

The Turner Report (with a UK version of KiwiSaver)

A review of the United Kingdom Pensions Commission report on likely changes to the UK pension system, and comment on the relevance to the situation in New Zealand.

ACC 2007/08 proposed levy rates

A review of the consultative document released by ACC on the proposed rates for the 2007/08 year.

General Insurance Risk Margins Overview

For reporting periods commencing 1 January 2007, all reporting entities in New Zealand must comply with the New Zealand International Financial Reporting Standards (NZ IFRS). Early adoption of the NZ IFRS is permitted from 1 January 2005. Risk margins are a requirement.

Balanced Fund Investment Analysis

An analysis of the importance of the Benchmark and of the value added by Fund Managers when managing their Balanced Funds.

Comment on Law Commission Report 87 “Life Insurance”

Most New Zealand life insurance legislation dates from 1873. There is wide agreement that change to legislation is appropriate.